Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama          下载免费PDF全文

Ruoyu Wang  Latif Kalin  Wenhui Kuang  Hanqin Tian 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5530-5546

Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Balancing trade‐off issues in land use change and the impact on streamflow and salinity management          下载免费PDF全文

Xiang Cheng  Kurt K. Benke  Craig Beverly  Brendan Christy  Anna Weeks  Kirsten Barlow  Mark Reid 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1641-1662

The south‐west region of the Goulburn–Broken catchment in the south‐eastern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia faces a range of natural resource challenges. A balanced strategy is required to achieve the contrasting objectives of remediation of land salinization and reducing salt export, while maintaining water supply security to satisfy human consumption and support ecosystems. This study linked the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT), comprising a suite of farming system models, to the catchment‐scale CATNode hydrological model to investigate the effects of land use change and climate variation on catchment streamflow and salt export. The modelling explored and contrasted the impacts of a series of different revegetation and climate scenarios. The results indicated that targeted revegetation to only satisfy biodiversity outcomes within a catchment is unlikely to have much greater impact on streamflow and salt load in comparison with simple random plantings. Additionally, the results also indicated that revegetation to achieve salt export reduction can effectively reduce salt export while having a disproportionately smaller affect on streamflows. Furthermore, streamflow declines can be minimized by targeting revegetation activities without significantly altering salt export. The study also found that climate change scenarios will have an equal if not more significant impact on these issues over the next 70 years. Uncertainty in CATNode streamflow predictions was investigated because of the effect of parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany          下载免费PDF全文

Anne Gädeke  Herwig Hölzel  Hagen Koch  Ina Pohle  Uwe Grünewald 《水文研究》2014,28(12):3978-3998

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

River discharge,land use change,and surface water quality in the Xiangjiang River,China          下载免费PDF全文

Zhao Zhang  Yi Chen  Pin Wang  Jiabing Shuai  Fulu Tao  Peijun Shi 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4130-4140

To compare the impacts of river discharge on the surface water quality of the Xiangjiang River in China, 12 surface water quality parameters recorded at 31 sampling sites from January 1998 to December 2008 along the river and its main tributaries were analyzed. Significantly higher concentrations of total nitrogen, ammoniacal nitrogen, and total phosphorus, and biochemical oxygen demand were observed during low‐flow periods than during high‐flow periods, implying a higher risk to local residents drinking untreated water during low‐flow periods. Pollution indexes, including the inorganic pollution index and integrated pollution index (IPI), were negatively related to impervious surface area (ISA) and cropland area (CLA) when ISA (CLA) was less than 160 (3000) km². However, the relationship was positive when ISA (CLA) was larger than 160 (3000) km², which provided a reasonable explanation for the observed spatial patterns of water quality. Distinct increasing temporal trends for two kinds of pollution indexes were also found. The annual ISA was significantly related to the rapid degradation of water quality from 1998 to 2008, with correlation coefficient (r) values of 0.816 (p = 0.002) and 0.711 (p = 0.014) for the organic pollution index (OPI) and IPI, respectively. However, annual rainfall was negatively correlated with the two indexes with r values of 0.785 (p = 0.002) and 0.448 (p = 0.093) for OPI and IPI, respectively. Our study highlights that decision makers should be more aware of recent increases in the pollution of the Xiangjiang River, especially at downriver sites and during low‐flow periods. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

大型射电望远镜主反射面调整方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

孙正雄  王锦清  虞林峰  张志斌  王广利 《天文学报》2024,65(2):15

随着毫米波天文学和空间通信的重要性日益提高, 对天线性能提出了越来越高的要求, 而天线性能往往受到其反射器表面精度的限制. 微波全息技术是一种快速有效的检测反射面天线表面轮廓的测量技术. 通过微波全息测量得到天线口径场, 计算天马65m射电望远镜反射面与理想抛物面的偏差. 天马65m射电望远镜的主反射面板是放射状的, 有14圈. 面板的每个角都固定在面板下方促动器的螺栓上进行上下移动, 且相邻面板交点处的拐角共用一个促动器. 采用平面拟合的方法可以计算各块面板拐角处的调整值, 但是同一个促动器会得到4个不同的调整量. 通过平面拟合, 同时以天线照明函数为权重的平差计算方法得到相邻面板拐角的一个平差值, 即天马65m射电望远镜1104个促动器的最佳调整值. 通过多次调整和新算法的应用, 天马65m射电望远镜反射面的面形精度逐渐提高到了0.24mm.  相似文献   

渤海湾盆地渤中19-6气田凝析油特征及油气关系     

李威  李友川  兰蕾  傅宁  王柯 《地质学报》2021,95(3):913-923

2018年中国东部最大整装凝析气田——渤中19-6气田的发现,一举打开了渤海湾盆地深层天然气勘探的新领域,展现了油型盆地天然气勘探的巨大潜力。渤中凹陷发育多套不同成熟度的烃源岩,位于渤中凹陷西南部的渤中19-6气田凝析油与天然气并存,近年来于该地区的天然气成因及形成条件多有研究,但是对于凝析油的形成则少有研究。本文以渤中19-6气田为例,探讨多套烃源岩发育的复杂油气区凝析油的成因及与天然气的关系。渤中19-6气田6个凝析油样品化学组成及其变化特征精细分析对比表明:该区凝析油以低碳数正构烷烃为主,含有较丰富的环己烷、甲基环己烷等环烷烃和苯、甲苯等低碳数芳烃,金刚烷类化合物较发育,高碳数生物标志化合物含量较低,综合判断凝析油属于混合偏腐殖型高熟原油。结合该区凝析油与天然气对比结果认为,该区凝析油和天然气属于同一套烃源岩在同一阶段所生成的烃类化合物,两者相伴而生,均属于烃源岩原生产物。  相似文献   

空气潜孔锤钻进技术在舜皇山基岩地热深井的应用          下载免费PDF全文

石荆京  张海林  苏园园  胡志航  郑秀华 《探矿工程》2021,48(10):36-42

空气潜孔锤钻进技术不仅可以提高钻探效率,而且不损害地热储层,因此在地热井中的应用十分广泛,但是仍受到钻探深度和出水量的限制。在湖南永州舜皇山基岩地热深井钻探过程中,常规牙轮钻进与泥浆钻进工艺存在钻进效率低、堵塞储层、影响出水量的可能。应用空气潜孔锤钻进技术实现了钻探深度的突破,钻探深度达到1820 m,实际出水量400 m³/d,出水温度43 ℃,符合设计指标。本文总结了相应的钻进工艺措施,以期促进对该技术在地热深井中的推广应用。  相似文献   

黄土高原北部土地利用变化对长期土壤水分平衡影响模拟   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

白晓  贾小旭  邵明安  赵春雷 《水科学进展》2021,32(1):109-119

为探明土地利用变化对黄土高原长期土壤水分平衡的影响,利用校验的Hydrus-1D模型模拟黄土高原北部神木六道沟小流域1981—2050年农耕地—苜蓿草地—天然草地情景下0~4 m土壤水分变化过程,量化土壤储水量、深层渗漏和蒸散发等水文变量的演变特征。结果显示:①农耕地期间年降水的88%为蒸散发消耗,11%为渗漏损失。②苜蓿草地种植后6 a内,蒸散发大幅增加至年降水的108%,土壤水分负平衡,0~4 m土壤储水量以52 mm/a的速率降低;至7~13 a,年降水几乎全部被蒸散发消耗。③苜蓿草地转变为天然草地后,蒸散发量下降31%,土壤水分以45 mm/a的速率逐渐补给,之后年降水量的92%用于蒸散发,8%为渗漏消耗,土壤水分处于相对稳定状态。研究表明不同土地利用方式下的土壤水分平衡模式具有显著差异,种植高耗水植被可造成土壤水分负平衡,导致土壤干燥化,进而对土壤水分补给产生负面效应,改变植被类型可使土壤干层得到有效改善。  相似文献   

基于地学规律的科尔沁沙地土地整治与生态修复规划方法     

张凤荣  周建  徐艳  陈竞元 《地学前缘》2021,28(4):35-41

内蒙古科尔沁沙地历史上曾是科尔沁大草原,现在是农牧交错区,该区的土地利用关系到生态安全、国家粮食安全和农民生计。该区域“坨甸相间”地貌特点造成不同地形部位土壤含水量存在差异,降水量年际变化大。通过卫星影像数据解译出土地利用/覆被类型图与土壤图进行叠加,获得了显性沙地和隐性沙地数量与分布信息。首先保留耕地以外的其他地类,再利用卫星影像数据反映不同降水年型耕地的归一化植被指数(NDVI),将偏欠水年NDVI低于平均值的耕地退耕还草,消除这些耕地的冬春沙化风险,以进行土地利用布局调整。这种直接利用遥感数据获取土地利用/覆被类型和耕地的NDVI进行土地利用空间布局调整的方法,十分简单实用。本文还根据地貌和沙地降水入渗快的特点,提出了与高标准农田建设模式不同但与区域地理环境相吻合的农田整治模式,即利用自然沙丘作为区域风沙防护工程,土地开发不做大平整,不修建灌溉系统,发展雨养农业。以上根据区域地理环境条件进行土地利用布局和确定农田开发建设模式,可将农业生产与荒漠化防治和谐结合在一起,实现土地可持续利用。  相似文献   

松嫩平原东部土地利用时空动态变化分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨佳佳  张一鹤  冯雨林  高铁  肖红叶  刘洋  杨泽  魏明辉  张哲寰 《地质与资源》2021,29(6):627

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